April 2025 | Campaigns
Incumbency is supposed to be an advantage.
High name recognition. Established political organizations. A record of accomplishments. And the inertia that often carries incumbents toward re-election.
But what happens when those advantages turn into liabilities?
In Vancouver's 2025 municipal by-election, Decide Campaigns worked with Mayor Ken Sim's ABC Vancouver party as it sought to elect two new city councillors.
Neither candidate was successful.
The election presented an important lesson about the changing nature of incumbency. The recognition that once benefited a political brand can become a liability when voters associate that brand with decisions they oppose.
And the organizational advantages of incumbency can create their own problems. Established campaigns can become too comfortable with their assumptions, too confident in their previous success and too reluctant to recognize changing circumstances.
The challenge is recognizing the warning signs.
Are voters becoming less receptive? Are previously successful messages losing their effectiveness? Are the issues motivating voters changing? And, most importantly, are we prepared to acknowledge what the evidence is telling us?
The Vancouver by-election reminded us that incumbency is not an electoral strategy. It is a political circumstance that can help or hinder a campaign.
The most dangerous decision a campaign can make is to ignore the evidence because it doesn't support what we want to believe.